The sorrow of small market teams! Thunder& Timberwolves& Pacers Championship and demolition teams are only between the front line

Translator's note: This article was originally published from Yahoo, and the author is Ben Rohrbach. The data in the article are as of the original text as of May 25th local time. The views in the article have nothing to do with the translator and the platform.

If Giannis Antetokounmpo's career in the Milwaukee Bucks ended this summer, it would confirm that his commitment to chasing the championship far exceeded his loyalty to the Bucks.

This will also sound a wake-up call for small market competitors such as Oklahoma City, Minnesota and Indiana: Although the relationship between the Thunder and Alexander, the Timberwolves and Edwards, and the Pacers and Halliburton seems to be very stable at the moment, the continuation of this harmonious atmosphere depends entirely on whether the Thunder, the Timberwolves and the Pacers can continue to compete for the championship.

Since LeBron James left the Cleveland Cavaliers to join the Miami Heat 15 years ago - that "decision" gave birth to the NBA's player empowerment era - a generation of superstars such as Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, Kyrie Irving, Paul George and Jimmy Butler have successively rushed to larger cities from small market teams. The fan community in Oklahoma City, Minnesota and Indiana is the most deeply felt by the influence.

Through the reconstruction plan, the Thunder, Timberwolves and Pacers not only cultivated their own superstars, but also built a lineup with championship-level competitiveness around them. This is no different from the way the Bucks built a team around Antetokounmpo back then - Antetokounmpo used his influence within the team and urged the management to make a deal every time the contract renews: first get Ju Holiday, then Damian Lillard. During this period, the Bucks won a championship, which made all of this valuable.

If the team never reaches the top, the pressure on management to meet the needs of superstars will increase exponentially. The Dallas Mavericks had traded him before the conflict escalated because they were worried that they would not be able to build a sustainable championship team around Luca Doncic—even more worried that he might leave during the reconstruction process.

Where did the Mavericks send Doncic? Los Angeles Lakers. Small markets will not drop superstars overnight because they have to worry about whether these stars will leave them. Since Jabbar left Milwaukee for Los Angeles, superstars have been attracted by the NBA's "destination city", where players and teams can earn more income and provide a luxurious lifestyle. Although the case of Doncic is extreme, it finally reveals the cruel reality of professional sports: players will age, contract amounts will rise, and luxury taxes will soar. The latest labor-management agreement almost attempted to close it while the championship window was opened. We're just starting to see its impact on the next generation of NBA superstars, like Antetokounmpo and Jokic's side of the Denver Nuggets has begun to collapse.

Although we once thought they might play in small markets for life, the possibility must be considered now: they are also the product of the era of player empowerment. Although the Bucks and the Nuggets maintained their lineup competitiveness far longer than the Cavaliers kept James back then, everything was finally over. When the team's assets depreciate and when the leverage of power loses its fulcrum, the free eyes will eventually turn to the distance - the story that happened to Antetokounmpo in this moment.

So where are Gilgers-Alexander, Edwards and Halliburton in this cycle? Let's analyze it one by one.

Thunder's financial countdown

Thunder's Chet Homegren and Jaylen Williams will be eligible to renew a maximum salary contract with the team in the summer of 2026, when Alexander will also be eligible to sign a five-year, $380 million contract extension. These three players - the Thunder's Big Three, whose salary costs may cost the team to lose most of their current roster depth as they will also face different player options for Haltenstein, Dortmund, Carson Wallace and Kenridge Williams next season.

If the Thunder win this year's championship, they only have one season to defend their title, and the impact of the labor-management agreement will appear. The Boston Celtics faced the same reality when defending their title this season. Even before Jason Tatum suffered a devastating injury, the expensive squad was destined to disintegrate in the offseason.

However, no team is more capable of replenishing the depth of the Big Three around the Big Three, because they have the richest pick reserves in the league. But there is no guarantee whether these draft picks can grow into championship-level players. Think of the Nuggets where Jokic is: When they lost key rotation players in the free agent market, only Braun grew up to fill the gap among their own rookies, and most of the other draft picks failed to realize their potential, which ultimately led to the Nuggets being able to stop in the second round this season. This made General Manager Calvin Booth lose his job, and to some extent, head coach Michael Malone was also dismissed. The price of asset depreciation is so cruel that it is suffocating in the NBA.

Whether Thunder can stay healthy is a factor that no one can guarantee. Think of the Celtics – they watched the injuries destroy their best chance to defend their title. The series was lost, the season ended, and an era might end with it. In the NBA, fortunes always change rapidly, which is why grasping the present is so important.

If the Thunder fails to win this year's championship, what else is there to capture the moment better than chasing Antetokounmpo? All these assets they own also give them more conditions than any team to complete a big deal this summer. Of course, this requires the assumption that Antetokounmpo, a player who has previously set his sights on a larger market, is willing to renew his contract in Oklahoma City. Whether the pair will have explosive chemical reactions or embarrassing compatibility issues, Antetokounmpo's joining will not change the financial difficulties the Thunder will face, but will only increase their pressure to win next season, after all, salary costs will rise and the supporting role lineup will also be weakened.

Has the peak of Minnesota reached? The Timberwolves realized Anthony Edwards' superstar potential very early and took action: In July 2022, they exchanged the cost of six first-round picks for Rudy Gobert. This brought them a trip to the Western Conference Finals last season, but financial pressure followed - so they exchanged Towns for Randall and Divencenzo, a big bet that eventually brought the team back to the Western Conference Finals.

This recent success - the team's first taste of victory since the early 21st century, is both a blessing and a curse. It not only gave birth to Edwards, the league's most explosive star, but also gave him a first taste of the championship. Every season ahead, the 22-year-old shooting guard will ask the team to maintain or even improve its competitiveness.

The Timberwolves will pay Edwards, Gobert and McDaniels $105 million in salary next season, not including whether Randall and Naz Reed will execute a total of $45 million player option. Coupled with the contracts of Divinzenzo, Mike Conley and Dillingham, the team's total salary will inevitably exceed the salary cap and break through the luxury tax line. So they may lose Alexander Walker this summer, maybe even Reed or Randall.

Their lineup strength will continue to be damaged, while operating costs will continue to rise. As Edwards' new contract is fulfilled, the Timberwolves' lineup will only continue to shrink. Unless you do some bold moves, this moment may be the pinnacle of Minnesota—although no one wants to admit it.

Even if the Timberwolves are enjoying the most successful period in team history, it is hard not to be pessimistic about these issues. They lost to the Thunder in this year's division finals and once again stopped in the Western Conference Finals, making this frustration even more suffocating. Suddenly, the four years left of Edwards’ contract didn’t seem long anymore—or perhaps, in his eyes, might have been longer. Indiana is also facing a choice, just like the Timberwolves, the Pacers completed a big deal when Halliburton rookie contract is about to expire: in January 2024, they traded Pascal Siakam. Both are currently executing a maximum salary contract, which will occupy 55%-60% of the Pacers' salary space in the next three seasons. No one thought the team was in the championship-winning qualifying position until Halliburton's stellar performance gave the Pacers home advantage in the division finals - but now they did.

We used to think that Pacers are only one step away from being a true competitor, and they may still be the case now. Although the odds are not optimistic about their winnings, if they really win the championship this year, who can assert what is the ceiling for this team led by a super giant who is still in the rising period? They are already challenging the probability.

In any case, the Pacers will fall into a math problem: Myers Turner becomes a free agent after the end of the season. His salary of $20 million last season was a great value, and now he must ask for a raise. The Pacers have the ability to satisfy him, as Nemhard, Nesmith and Toppin are all on extremely cost-effective contracts for the foreseeable future. But in this way, the Pacers lock themselves in a squad that we think has reached their full potential.

Pacers can exchange some contracts and remaining draft picks for missing puzzles just like the Bucks traded to Holiday back then. The Bucks' operations that year opened the window for championships, but this window for championships may be fleeting - the story of Milwaukee tells us that age, injuries and financial pressure will eventually swallow everything. Then, they made another wrong attempt, and the class leader was not the answer to their continued winning window.

This is the difficulty of winning the championship, and it is also the difficulty of keeping superstars satisfied in small markets. If you make a mistake, the window will be completely closed. And every team that failed to win the championship still has a lot to go. Even with the most complete sustainable development conditions, the Thunder will feel financial pressure after a season, and the choices faced by the Pacers and the Timberwolves will come sooner.

If Alexander, Edwards or Halliburton choose to leave Oxford City, Minnesota and Indiana one day, the NBA will have to bear the consequences - all of this is the seeds sown by the new labor agreement in the league.