Why did the Grizzlies choose to trade Bain? Because the Grizzlies record is getting worse

On June 19, the Memphis Grizzlies made a shocking decision in the 2025 offseason - trading the leading scorer Desmond Bain to the Charlotte Hornets for the 2027 first-round pick and young forward player. Behind this move, the team's management's deep reflection on the existing lineup: when the winning rate fell below 50% for two consecutive seasons and failed repeatedly in the first round of the playoffs, the Grizzlies had to admit that the trident combination with Morant + Bain + Jaren Jackson Jr. as the core had hit the ceiling.

### 1. Structural flaws under the prosperity of data

Bain's personal data is gorgeous - he averaged 23.5 points, 4.8 rebounds and 4.2 assists per game in the 2024-25 season, and his three-point shooting percentage remained at a high level of 39.7%. But an in-depth analysis of the game video will reveal that when Morant broke through with the ball, Bain's threat of no-ball as a fixed-point shooter is decreasing. The evolution of the league's defensive strategy has made the opponent more daring to short Bain to shrink the inside line, because statistics show that his breakthrough efficiency after receiving the ball is only better than 53% of the league's players. More importantly, Bain and Morant's defensive compatibility issues are becoming increasingly prominent: the team's defensive efficiency is only 114.3 when they are on the court at the same time, ranking seventh from the bottom among the backcourt combinations in the league. The decision-making team of Zach Kleiman, president of basketball operations at the team, found that the period when Bain maximizes its value is exactly during Morant's injury. In 21 games where Morant missed due to a knee injury last season, Bain led the team to 12 wins and 9 losses as the main controller, and the real plus-negative value jumped to the top three shooting guards. This "1+1

#### 2. The inevitable reconstruction of salary bombs and lineups

The summer of 2025 will become the turning point of the Grizzlies' salary structure. Bain's newly signed 5-year, 207 million maximum salary contract will begin to be executed soon, and with Morant's 231 million super maximum salary and Jackson Jr.'s 4-year, 105 million contract, the trio will occupy 107% of the salary cap. What's more serious is that the renewal window for high-quality role players such as Adams and Clark is opened simultaneously. Actuarial model shows that if the existing core is retained, the team will trigger the second rich line in the 2026-27 season, not only will the mini middle class special case be lost, but the first round of the series The signs will be frozen.

The assets exchanged for Bain are strategically valuable: the Hornets' first round pick in 2027 are protected by the top five picks. Considering Charlotte's operating conditions in recent years, this sign is very likely to be converted into a lottery. 21-year-old forward guard swinger Bryce McGowen, whose 2.06-meter wingspan and 38% three-point shooting rate perfectly match the 3D needs of modern basketball. The Grizzlies' medical team evaluated that this young man who has suffered an ACL injury still has an 85% chance of returning to his pre-injury sports level.

### 3. The philosophical adjustment of the team building philosophy in the Morant era

General Manager Kleiman showed a shocking modeling data at the internal meeting: in the past three years of the playoffs, when the opponent adopted 2-3 joint defense, the Grizzlies scored only 0.89 points per round, ranking last in the 16 playoff teams. The standard configuration of the modern champion team is to have more than two ball-holding blasting points (such as Murray of the Nuggets + Jokic, and Tatum of the Celtics + Brown), and Bain's ball-holding development ability obviously does not meet the second-in-command standards.

coaching team proposed The concept of "space-type five-for-length lineup" requires more flexible forward resources. New aid McGowan complements Cody Williams, the 2024 No. 12 pick. The former is good at weak side empty cuts, and the latter has the potential to organize the ball. More importantly, the released salary space allows the Grizzlies to chase All-star front lines like Ingram in the free market in 2026. ESPN analyst Bobby Marks pointed out that the Grizzlies have obtained a total salary elasticity of 43 million in the next three years through this deal.

### 4. Survival rules for small-season teams

Memphis, as the fifth-most market in the league, must follow a strict asset appreciation strategy. The Bain transaction is essentially an imitation of the Raptors DeRozan Leonard transaction in 2018 - to replace more adaptable assets when players' value peaks. It is worth noting that Bain's injury has exacerbated management's concerns: he has missed 47 regular season games due to foot stress reaction in the past two seasons, and sports medicine experts predict that he The explosive power may fall sharply after the age of 30.

Compared with the Thunder's successful cases of accumulating draft picks through continuous trading of George and Westbrook, the Grizzlies' move is intended to replicate the "short-term pain for long-term gains". A model constructed by Jason Sheldon, head of team data analysis, shows that through the 2025-26 season, the Grizzlies have a 73% chance of retaining the top six picks, and will form a more reasonable age echelon with their existing young cores.

### 5. Rebalancing of locker room chemistry

The anonymous team assistant coach revealed that the off-court relationship between Morant and Bain is much more complicated than media reports. Although the two always praised each other in public, the debate about the distribution of ball rights occurred frequently at tactical meetings. During a team training, Bain was confirmed by many witnesses because he was dissatisfied with Morant's tactical running position. The picture "Business is Business" posted on social media after the transaction confirmed to some extent the outside world's speculation.

The new coach D'Antoni's running and bomb system requires absolute obedience tactical discipline, while Bain's traditional half-court play was difficult to adapt. On the contrary, McGowan showed no-ball IQ (off-screen scoring efficiency per round exceeds that of the NCAA 92% of the players) are more in line with the needs of the new system. Team psychology consultant pointed out that this deal cleared the potential power competition risks in the locker room, making Morant truly an undisputed leader.

The final success or failure of this deal may take three years to judge, but the decisiveness shown by the Grizzlies management is worthy of recognition. In the contemporary NBA, there are many cases of obsessed with emotional bonds and missing out on opportunities for reconstruction (such as the Wizards' long-term retention of Bills led to delays in reconstruction). By accurately grasping the trading opportunities, the Grizzlies not only avoided the undervalue of the Celtics when trading Pierce, but also avoided the indecisiveness of the Suns when dealing with Bledsoe. Perhaps as the Athletic reporter John Hollinger said: "The courage to actively seek change before the championship window is closed is the real password for the counterattack in the small ball market. "