Saturday 025 Ligue 1> Rennes vs Nice> Angers vs Strass> Brest vs Lille Saturday 028 Ligue 1> Le Havre vs Marseille

Fundamental analysis: Comparison of European seats and status

Rennes: Strong home firepower, and hidden dangers on defense still exist

This season's outstanding home performance, 4 wins and 1 loss in the last 5 home games, averaging 2.2 goals per game, and the double-core Guyli (14 goals and 5 assists) and Trier (11 goals) are in a stable state. However, the defensive end has frequently seen loopholes recently, conceding 8 goals in the last five league rounds. The absence of central defender Omali (cumulative yellow card suspension) and fullback Truffert (muscle strain) has made the defense even worse, and he was forced to activate young player Belosian. According to Rennes' official announcement, midfielder San Maria (knee injury) will also be absent, and the midfield interception ability will be reduced.

Nice: The away defense is stable, and the offensive efficiency is a shortcoming

Nice ranks fourth with 57 points and is still expected to qualify for the Champions League. The team has outstanding defensive ability on the away field, conceding only 3 goals in the last five away games, and the success rate of central defenders Todibo and Dante in high-altitude top-square-top competition reached 73% (Ligue 1 official website data). However, the offensive efficiency was sluggish. The forwards Labold (9 goals) and Moffey (8 goals) only contributed 1 goal in the last three rounds, and the midfield core Sanson (ankle injury) and winger Buanani (cumulative yellow card suspension) were absent, which caused creativity to be damaged. Nice officially confirmed that there are as many as 10 people in the defense line injury list, including veteran Dante and Mohamed Abdul Munem, and the defense line rotation pressure is huge.

Injury and Tactical Game

Renne Injury (official announcement): Central defender Omari (suspended), full-back Truffert (muscle strain), midfielder San Maria (knee injury) is absent, coach Genesio may adjust his 4-3-3 formation, relying on Doku's breakthrough on the wing and Guilli's retreat.

Nice injury (club statement): Midfielder Sanson (ankle injury), winger Buanani (suspended), defender Bar (ligament surgery) is absent, coach Falioli may use young player Belayada, focusing on 3-4-2-1 formation, emphasizing midfield control and wingback insertion.

Tactical key points:

Ren needs to impact Nice's incomplete defense line through the wing suppression and infiltration of the middle, especially Guilli and Trier's penalty area ending ability; Nice may use Todibo's long pass to launch a counterattack and aim at Renne's defensive vacuum zone on the left. The two teams faced Nice 2-0 in the first leg, with a 54% advantage in the ball possession rate, but Rennes's condition has rebounded after changing coaches recently, and his tactical execution has become more pragmatic.

Historical confrontations and data support

The record is stalemate: in the last 5 matches, Rennes has won 1, draw and 3 losses, but he defeated Nice 2-0 away in the first leg of the season, and his psychological disadvantage has been alleviated.

Index tendency: The initial team will mainly give 0.25 goals to the water, and then adjust to the tie hand, and the support for Rennes is weakened. Nice's away defense data (per-game conceded 0.8 goals per game) is better than Renne's home offensive data (per-game conceded 1.9 goals per game), but Renne has conceded only 5 goals in the last 6 games after changing coaches, and the quality of defense has improved.

Results prediction

Although Nice has a stable defense, its offense is weak, and it is only 1 point away from the third place. She strives to win this game and strives for the qualification for the European game. She is expected to win a small victory or take away a draw.

Recommended: Nice is unbeaten (away win + draw)

Score reference: 1-1, 1-2

Saturday 026 Ligue 1>Angers vs Strass

Fundamental analysis: Relegation and mid-level

Angers: Fight at home to relegate, and the hidden dangers on the defense line are difficult to cover up

Angers currently ranks 14th in Ligue 1 with 33 points (as of May 2025), leading the relegation zone by only 2 points, and the pressure to relegate is high. The team's condition has been fluctuating recently, with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in the last five leagues, and has struggled slightly at home (3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses in the last 10 leagues), but the French Cup 3-1 away away from Strasbourg in the mid-week, which boosted morale. The offensive end relies on forwards Lepol (who recently scored two goals) and Dion, but the defensive problems are outstanding. They have averaged 1.8 goals per game in the last 15 league games, and the main center back Hongtongji and right-back Alcus are absent due to injury, so the defense line is tightly rotated.

Strasbourg: In the European game, it is very resilient away.

Strasbourg ranks 6th in Ligue 1 with 57 points, and still has hope of qualifying for the Europa League. The team has been in a stable state recently, with 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses in the last 10 rounds of the league, and the away unbeaten rate is as high as 70% (4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses in the last 10 away games). The offensive end has blossomed at multiple points. The forward line composed of Morela, Emigga and Baccarva averaged 2 goals per game in the last 6 games, and the crossing efficiency on the wing was significantly improved (the success rate of new player Balco made a cross in the winter window was 85%). However, there are hidden dangers in the defense line. The main central defender Sal was suspended, and youth training young player Bo Duane was appointed to fight for the top of the high altitudes. The success rate of high-altitude tops was reduced from 71% to 58%.

Injury and Tactical Game

Angers Injury (official announcement): Central defender Hongtongji (knee injury), right back Alkus (muscle fatigue), forward Dion (suspicious to play) is absent. Coach Dure may use a 4-3-3 formation, emphasizing breakthroughs on the flank and rapid counterattack, but the height of the defense line and interception ability are reduced.

Strasbourg injury (club statement): Central defender Saar (suspension), forward Sahi (ligament injury), and midfielder Alu (ankle surgery) are absent. The coach may use the 3-4-1-2 formation, relying on Morera's role in the middle fulcrum and the wingback's insertion assist.

Tactical key points: Angers needs to create threats through Lepol's personal ability and cross from the wing, but they need to be alert to Strasbourg's counterattack speed; Strasbourg may use Morera's high point to compete for the top and Baccarva's side breakthrough to target Angers's defense line's shortcoming of turning speed. The two teams met in the first leg and tied with Strasbourg 1-1 at home, with a 54% advantage in the ball possession rate but a 4-5 draw.

Historical confrontations and data support

The performance is stalemate: in the last 10 matches, Angers has a slight advantage in 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses, but Strasbourg has remained unbeaten in 1 win and 2 draws in the last 3 matches.

Index tendency: Institutions draw the hand in the initial hand, and then adjusted to Strasbourg's away game 0.25 goals, recognizing its away game resilience. Angers' home offensive efficiency (1.2 goals per game) is lower than Strasbourg's away defense data (1.1 goals per game), and the data tends to be unbeaten by the away team..

Results prediction: Angers has a strong desire to relegate, but the incomplete defense line is a hidden danger to physical fitness problems (consumption of the French Cup in the middle of the week); Strasbourg has balanced offense and defense and clear European power, but the risk of rotation of the central defenders still exists. JoStrasbourg can continue its counterattack efficiency and limit Lepol, and is expected to grab points away; Joan Gerard uses his home momentum and set-piece tactics to tie the opponent.

Recommended: Strasbourg is unbeaten (draw + home win)

Score reference: 2-1, 1-1

Saturday 027 Ligue 1> Brest VS Lille

Fundamental analysis: Fighting intention and recent state

Brest: Home resilience under relegation pressure

Brest currently ranks 9th in Ligue 1 with 47 points (as of May 9, 2025), relegation is worry-free. The team's condition has been fluctuating recently, with 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in the last five league rounds, and their home performance is a little struggling (3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses in the last 10 home games), but morale has been boosted by defeating Strasbourg 3-1 at home last round. The offensive end relies on forward Castillo (8 goals) and midfielder Martin (1 goal in 12 games), but the defensive problems are prominent. He averaged 1.8 goals per game in the last 15 league games, and the main central defender Coolibali and right-back Lala are absent due to injury, so the defense line is tightly rotated.

Lille: The stable army for European qualifications

Lille ranks fifth in Ligue 1 with 57 points, and still has hope of qualifying for the Champions League. The team has been in a stable state recently, and has remained unbeaten in all competitions in the last 13 games (7 wins and 6 draws), and has performed particularly well on the away game (4 wins and 3 draws in the last 7 away games). The offensive core Jonathan David (8 goals in 18 games) is in full swing, and contributes key goals in the last round of the league, tying the second place in the team's history scorer list. The defensive end averaged only 0.95 goals per game. The success rate of the high-altitude top-square match between the central defender Mandy and Fernandez reached 73%, but the main left-back Buck was suspended, and many rotation players such as midfielder Anger Gomez were injured, so the lineup depth was limited.

Injury and Tactical Game

Brest Injury (Official Announcement): Midfielder Martin (Muscle Injury), Rees Mello (Ligament Injury), and defender Coolibali (Ankle Injury) are absent, and the defense line is forced to be activated for youth training players, and the wing defense loophole may become a hidden danger.

Lille was injured (club statement): left-back Buck (suspended), midfielder Bentaleb (heart problem), and Mbappe (knee injury) were absent, but No. 2 shooter Gergrova (8 goals in 18 games) returned from injury, and the threat to the front line increased.

Tactical key points: Brest coach Eric Roy may continue the 4-3-3 formation, relying on crosses from the wing and Castillo to grab points in the penalty area, but the midfield control is insufficient; Lille coach Genesio focuses on 4-2-3-1, creating threats through high-pressure pressing and rapid counterattack, especially aiming at the opponent's defensive vacuum zone on the wing. The two teams had a 1-0 home win in the first leg, with a 54% advantage in the ball possession rate, but the shooting efficiency was only 3-5.

Historical confrontations and data support

Past suppression: In the last 10 matches, Lille has won 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses, and has remained unbeaten in the last 4 matches, and has never lost 7 wins, 2 draws against Brest in the last 9 away games.

Index tendency: Institutional initial transfers get 0.5 goals to get water, and then adjusts to 0.75 goals to get water, and supports Lille intensifies. Combined with Brest's home defense data (per-game conceded 1.8 goals per game) and Lille's away offensive efficiency (per-game 1.52 goals per game), the data tends to be small wins for the away team.

Results prediction

Brest has a strong desire to relegate, but his defensive line is a fatal shortcoming and weak midfield control; Lille is in a stable state and the threat of the front line escalates, but the intensive away game schedule may affect physical fitness. If Lille can continue the high-pressure pressing rhythm and end efficiently through the forward combination of David and Georgrova, he is expected to score all three-pointers away; if Brest uses the set piece and home momentum to create an upset, or tie the opponent.

Recommended: Lille is unbeaten (away win + draw)

Score reference: 1-2, 1-1

Saturday 028 Ligue 1> Le Havre VS Marseille

Fundamental analysis: Relegation pressure vs European ambition

Le Havre: Relegation battle life and death, offense and defense are in a hurry

Le Havre currently ranks 16th in Ligue 1 with 31 points (as of May 9, 2025), deeply trapped in the relegation zone, only 1 point away from the safety zone, and has a strong desire to relegate. However, the team has been in a sluggish state recently, with 2 wins and 8 losses in the last 10 rounds of the league, including 6 losses in 7 away games, and averaging 1.93 goals per game on the defensive end, making it the third team to conced the most goals in the league. The offensive end is the worst in Ligue 1, with only 11 goals scored in 15 rounds, and important attackers such as main center Casimir and winger Sumare were absent due to injuries, and the pressure of forward rotation was huge. Coach Digarh's 4-4-2 formation emphasizes midfield strangling, but his ability to shoot the ball when facing high-pressure pressing has little effect on recent tactical adjustments.

Marseille: In the competition for Champions League qualification, the away game is still unabated

Marseille currently ranks second in Ligue 1 with 59 points, and is only 1 point ahead of the third place Monaco, and still needs to consolidate the Champions League place. The team has been in a hot state recently, with 4 wins and 1 draw in the last five games, including a 4-0 victory over Saint-Etienne in the French Cup and a 5-1 sweep of Le Havre in the league, with morale in high spirits. The offensive end has full firepower, scoring 2.1 goals per game, forward Greenwood leads the scorer list with 10 goals in 15 rounds, and the connection between winger Sane and midfielder Longgier is extremely threatening. However, the team's home winning rate this season is only 29%, but its away performance is "the number one away dragon in Ligue 1". It scored 21 points in 8 away games, with a winning rate of 87.5%, and averaged 2.88 goals per game, far surpassing other teams.

Injury and Tactical Game

Le Havre Injury (Official Announcement): Central defender Sangante (ligament injury), winger Sumare (muscle fatigue), forward Casimir (knee injury), etc. were absent, and the defense line was forced to use youth training young players. The ability of high-altitude defense and wing defense is doubtful.

Marseille injury (club statement): Main right-back Lilola (red card suspension) and midfielder Caboni (ligament injury) are absent, but the core core Greenwood and Sane are both healthy, with limited impact on the offensive end.

Tactical key points: Le Havre needs to limit Marseille's wing breakthrough through intensive defense, and rely on the fast counterattacks of midfielders Cone and Playa; Marseille may continue the high-post pressing strategy, using Greenwood's penalty area finishing ability and Sane's wing cut to create murderous intent. In the historical confrontation, Marseille won all the last 8 matches, with 3 of them being cleaned up, with significant psychological suppression.

Historical confrontations and data support

Past crush: In the last 10 matches, Marseille has remained unbeaten with 8 wins and 2 draws, and has won all the last 4 league matches, with averaging more than 2 goals.

Index tendency: Institutional initial transfers give 1.5 goals, and then adjusts to 1.75 goals to reap the water, and the support for Marseille continues to increase. Combining Le Havre's home defense data (per-game conceded 1.8 goals per game) and Marseille's away offensive efficiency (per-game 2.88 goals per game), the data tends to win the away team.

Results prediction

Le Havre has a strong desire to relegate, but his strength and lineup depth are both at a disadvantage on both ends of offense and defense; Marseille's away performance was strong and his forward condition was hot, and his historical confrontation had significant psychological advantages. If Marseille can continue the high-pressure pressing rhythm and end it efficiently through core players such as Greenwood and Sane, it is expected to consolidate the Champions League place by a big away victory; if Le Havre shrinks his defense and uses set pieces to create a threat, or a brief stalemate, but it is difficult to stop the defeat.

Recommended: Marseille away win (-1.75)

Score reference: 0-3, 1-3

Statement: The above analysis is based on the injury information, tactical reports and historical data released by the official website of Ligue 1 and the club. Please refer to the actual game as the basis for the specific results. It is recommended to follow the official channels to obtain real-time updates.