The Heat chased KD and gave Shero 150 million in three years. Is it a big bet on the future, or is it a "silly person and more money"?

Let's talk about the Heat today - the kid Herro has recently become a "heart thorn" for Miami fans. On the one hand, ESPN salary expert said he could sign a maximum salary of 149.7 million in three years, and on the other hand, he was "squeezing on the ground" by the Cavaliers' back line in the playoffs. Should this money be given?

First data: This season, Herro played 77 regular season games (most careers), averaging 23.9 points, 5.2 rebounds and 5.5 assists per game, shooting percentage of 47.2%, and three-pointers 37.5%. What does this data mean? Only 8 people in the league can average 22+5+5 per game, and the remaining 7 are either Antetokounmpo and Tatum who play as super giants, or Harden and James who hold the ball at the historical level. Herro's ability to make it into this list is indeed a "counterattack" - you should know that he averaged only 2.7 free throws per game in the first two seasons, and this year he directly rose to 4.2 times, with all the attacking frames, three-pointers and free throws, and he has made himself a magic ball guard.

But the problem is that it will "reveal its true form" as soon as it arrives in the playoffs. In the first round against the Cavaliers, the Heat were swept 0-4, with Hero averaging 17.8 points, 3.5 rebounds and 2.8 assists per game, with a shooting percentage of 41.5%, and 31% of three-pointers. The most outrageous thing is defense - when he defends his opponent's two-pointer, the opponent's shooting percentage can reach 71%! The Cavaliers' back directly treated him as an "ATM": Garland made 6 of 10, Mitchell made 8 of 13, and even Jerome, who was substitute, made 8 of 9. After the game, Garland said directly, "We just focus on defensive weaknesses." Who is this weakness? Anyone with a discerning eye knows it is Herro.

What is even more heartbreaking is that there is a metaphysic in the history of the Heat: in the 22-23 season, Hero was injured and retreated, and the team reached the finals instead; this year, he was present throughout the game, and became a negative textbook for "winning is not scary, and whoever is missing is embarrassing."

Then why do the Heat still give him the maximum salary? Mr. Riley's abacus may not only look at the front of him. Herro has two years left in his contract (31 million in the 25-26 season and 33 million in the 26-27 season). If he renews his contract for 150 million in three years in advance this summer, it is equivalent to increasing his annual average salary to 50 million, but he can avoid the "super maximum salary" that may be triggered next year (207 million in four years, and 380 million in five years if he enters the Best Team). In other words, giving money now is "stop loss" - if this child really makes a fortune in the future, 50 million will be cheap; if he can't make a fortune, at least he won't be trapped by "super maximum salary".

Let's talk about the recent big moves of the Heat: in the KD battle, they became dark horses. The reporter said that the Heat listed Adebayo and Hiro as "not selling products" and wanted to keep these two giants in the KD group. Adebayo plays No. 4, rookie center Weil tops No. 5, KD returns to No. 3 to attack the main attack - this space configuration is more comfortable than the Timberwolves and Rockets. Moreover, in the 27-28 season, only Adebayo (52.6 million) and Will (7.1 million team options) and Herro have contracts, and they can quickly rebuild even if they fail to win the championship. Herro's 50 million contract just can stabilize the lower limit of combat power in those years.

But the risk is also obvious: Herro's defense is "coupled", and the playoff habit is "downshifted", and this contract is very likely to become a "trash contract". Not to mention that KD is 37 years old, and health risks + locker room cultural conflicts are all time bombs.

But then again, now the NBA contracts are flying everywhere, and the salary cap is rising year by year. 50 million in two years may be considered a "baby price". Although Hiro is still a little short of the super giant, in this era of "players make money, teams make money, and leagues make more money", the Heat bet on his potential - after all, this kid can go from "Glass Man" (only 42 games last season) to "attendant king" (77 games this season), and from "Nerve Knife" to All-Star, which means he is indeed improving.

Finally, let's be honest: Mr. Riley has been in the alliance for so many years, how could he do a loss-making business? With Xiro's contract renewal + KD's possible joining, this move has been made, and the Heat will have a chance in the Eastern Conference Finals in the next 2-3 years; if not, they can still be pushed back and started again after 2027. As for whether this 50 million is worth it? Let’s remember first and wait for the playoffs next season – after all, in basketball, the data is dead, and performance is alive.