Sunday 017 Wolves vs Brentford! This game is optimistic!

1. Fighting intention and league situation

Wolves

Relegation ended: ranked 14th with 41 points, and has relegated in advance, but recently suffered three consecutive losses and a defensive collapse (lost 2.3 goals per game in the last 3 games), exposing the hidden danger of relaxation after relegation.

Home Chapel Game: Victory needs to be used to give back to fans. The new coach Pereira's 3-4-2-1 system relies on a wing breakthrough (Huang Xican and Cunya), but the efficiency of the front ending declined (only 3 goals in the last 5 games).

Injury impact: Defensive core Moskara (cruciate ligament strain), forward Karadzic (knee injury) is absent, and the defense is under great pressure to reorganize.

Brentford

Estimated to European competition: ranked 9th with 55 points. If you win this game, you can refresh the team's history ranking and your fighting spirit is clear.

Away resilience: 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in the last 10 away games, and averaging 1.1 goals per game on the defensive end (best away game in the Premier League), but Carvalho's injury weakened his interception ability.

Front firepower: Mbeumo (14 goals) and Visa (10 goals) are in full form, the two are highly complementary, and the set ball score rate is 21% (6th in the Premier League).

2. Tactical game and key points

Wolves Tactics:

Wolves Blast + Settings: Relying on the wing breakthrough of Huang Xican (3.1 breakthroughs per game) and Cunya (8 goals), combined with Neto's cross (12.8 times per game), but the success rate of high-altitude top-square top is only 52%.

Midfield weakness: Lemina and Gomez have insufficient interception ability (8.2 steals per game), and are easily suppressed by Brentford midfielder Damsgao (2.5 key passes per game).

Brentford tactics:

High pressure press + quick conversion: wingback Rollslev and Rico Henry are tied to the Wolves, and McGinn (10 goals and 9 assists) in the middle to create a two-point offensive opportunity.

Defensive hidden dangers: weak air defense capability (58% success rate for top-strike). If the Wolves use long passes to rush or set ball, they may tear the defense line.

3. Historical confrontation and data support

Confrontation record: Brentford won all the last two times and scored 10 goals (5-3 in the first leg of this season), but the Wolves won 1 of their last three home matches, and their psychological disadvantage may become a variable.

Data tendency:

Ball possession rate: Wolves' average ball possession rate at home and Brentford's away ball possession rate is less than 40%, and the game rhythm may be dominated by Wolves.

Large-ball probability: Average of 4.2 goals in the last 4 matches, with a large-ball rate of 80%. The total number of goals in this game is expected to be ≥3 goals.

Institutional simulation: Wolves' winning rate is 40% vs Brentford 45%, draws 15%, tending to be evenly matched.

4. Win-loss prediction

Regular prediction: draw (1-1 or 2-2). Reason: Wolves' home spirit has rebounded, Brentford needs to be distracted from the competition for European qualifications, and the two sides may be in a tug-of-war.

Unpopular Warning: Wolves won a surprise (2-1). If the Wolfs activate Huang Xican's wing blast + set-piece tactics, they may make a counterattack.

5. Special highlights

Emotional catharsis: If the Wolves cannot bid farewell to the home court with victory, it may trigger a crisis of trust in the locker room, and the players' fighting spirit may become an X factor.

Tactical restraint: Can Brentford's high-pressure pressing limit the Wolves' counterattack efficiency, and whether the Wolves' weaknesses in the high-altitude top are targeted.

Player performance: Mbeoumo (Brentford)'s fulcrum role vs. Cunia (Wolves)'s fulcrum constraint, who is better?

Summary: The Wolves' home curtain call needs to prove themselves. Brentford has a clear intention to fight, but both sides have key injuries and tactical loopholes. The game rhythm is expected to be open and the probability of a large ball is high. It is recommended to pay attention to the draw and the total number of goals.

Recommend Wolves to win

Age reference 22 32

Also optimistic that Manchester City will win the game tonight~

The picture comes from the Internet