After three consecutive wins, Manchester United’s chances of qualifying for the Champions League are still low

After encountering a difficult start, Manchester United began to show signs of recovery, but it is still not favored in the competition for Champions League tickets.

In the 9th round of the Premier League, Manchester United defeated Brighton 4-2 at home and rose to 6th place in the standings with 16 points, 6 points behind Arsenal at the top. Red Devils fans are beginning to look forward to qualifying for the Champions League next season and even competing for the Premier League title. However, predictions from Opta show that Manchester United are less likely to qualify for next season's Champions League than dark horse teams such as Bournemouth and Crystal Palace. There are at least 4 places in the Premier League that directly advance to the Champions League (there may be an additional place based on the results of the European war), so the competition for the top 5 in the league is more intense than before.

According to 1,000 simulation predictions, Arsenal leads the way with a 93.45% promotion probability, while dark horses Crystal Palace and Bournemouth also unexpectedly entered the list. Despite their recent poor record, Liverpool still has a 73.99% probability of qualifying for next season's Champions League, while Manchester City's probability of advancement is 73.51%. Chelsea's promotion probability is only 41.39%, while Crystal Palace, Aston Villa, Bournemouth and Brighton's promotion probability are 24%, 20.67%, 17.38% and 16.19% respectively.

Surprisingly, Manchester United only has a 15.87% probability of qualifying for the Champions League next season. Although currently ranked high, Opta's prediction model is clearly bearish on the Red Devils. To compete for a Champions League ticket, United need to maintain consistency throughout the season. Taking into account the performance of English clubs in the European War last season (obtaining the 5th extra seat), the Premier League will most likely continue to obtain 5 Champions League seats in the 25-26 season.