Knicks lineup depth and rotation prediction 2.0: Preseason observation version

The New York Knicks' preseason preparation journey has spanned 14,000 miles, gone through two preseason games, and put together a starting lineup we have never seen before.

After defeating the Philadelphia 76ers twice on their overseas pre-season tour, the Knicks returned from Abu Dhabi this weekend. With two weeks left until the regular season kicks off, the team has already shown some highlights of the new season in overseas arenas: According to NBA official data, the first-half rhythm value of these two games reached 102.5 (only the first half is taken because the main players have the most playing time), which shows that the team is speeding up. Mitchell Robinson has started both games so far, and the competition for the final lineup spot is even fierce enough to allow trade candidates to enter the starting lineup.

Although it is still the preseason stage, coach Mike Brown also emphasized that the lineup rotation is far from finalized, but by observing various signs, we can still outline the potential context-unless Brown is a hidden master of tactical deception.

Before the start of training camp, I made early predictions about lineup depth and rotation. Now that we are nearly halfway through the preseason, I will update my deductions based on existing observations and revise them again around the end of the preseason.

Now let’s analyze it in depth.

Will Robinson appear in the starting lineup for the opening game?

Although Brown said that the fifth starter has not yet been determined, Robinson has started two consecutive preseason games. It should be noted that Hart missed the second game due to a back injury in the first game, otherwise he might have entered the starting lineup in the second game.

However, since the preseason preparations, the information and personal judgment I have obtained point to Robinson entering the starting lineup. Last season's starting lineup consisting of Brunson, Bridges, Anunoby, Hart and Towns performed only mediocre or even deviated during most of the regular season and playoffs. With the new coach taking office, lineup adjustments are inevitable - replacing Hart with Robinson (this is exactly the change adopted by former coach Thibodeau in the second half of the playoffs last season) is undoubtedly the most reasonable plan. Although the lineup after Robinson started was still not outstanding in the limited playoff sample, the overall performance was better than the original starting lineup.

Although Robinson cannot solve the Knicks' offensive space problem in the early stages, he can provide the lineup with a defensive pillar and top offensive rebounder. Although this move is difficult to cover everything, it can at least strengthen one aspect of the team. In terms of personal performance, the long man performed well in Abu Dhabi, but the overall performance of the starting lineup still had ups and downs. But considering that this is a preseason game that is far away from home and faced with a new coach and a new system, it is too early to tell whether this lineup is the best choice.

All signs currently indicate that Robinson has locked up a starting spot in the opening game.

Who will make the "9.5-10 man" rotation?

At the beginning of the training camp, Brown once said that he is accustomed to using a rotation system of 9.5 to 10 people. In the first half of the game, he basically fulfilled this promise - although there are variables in the specific selection.

Although the final roster has not yet been determined, I can be sure that the following players will get playing time in the opener:

Jalen Brunson

Mikal Bridges

OG Anunoby

Karl Anthony · Towns

Mitchell Robinson

Josh Hart

Miles McBride

Jordan Clarkson

Gershon Yabusele

The latter two are important signings for the Knicks in the offseason. Although Clarkson and Yabusele performed mediocrely in the first two preseason games, their rotation seats will still be rock-solid when the regular season officially begins-unless their condition declines dramatically.

The tenth rotation seat will remain fluid. My gut feeling is that veteran Malcolm Brogdon, who has a non-guaranteed contract, is most likely to serve as the "tenth man" in the lineup. Looking at the aforementioned list, except for Brunson, the Knicks core lineup lacks traditional point guards. Moderately using Brogdon can not only increase the number of ball-holding points on the field, but also allow McBride and Clarkson to focus more on off-ball offense. Although Brogdon's statistics in Abu Dhabi were not eye-catching, he performed steadily in organizing and linking up, and he also had bright spots on the defensive end from time to time.

Outside of Brogdon, I even foresee center Ariel Hooker-Bolty getting sporadic playing time. This interior lineman who runs aggressively and has a wingspan that makes attackers fearful. If Robinson enters injury management, he may even get the chance to start in some games. When the main player is absent, some coaches will choose to start the third overall pick instead of directly replacing him to maintain the integrity of the original rotation. After Anunoby missed the preseason due to a hand injury, Brown started Pacom Dadier, which may be for this reason (I also noticed that the Knicks were showing Dadier's trade value. The team needed to trade to retain two of the three veterans introduced to the training camp. Brown killed two birds with one stone by this move). However, if Hooker-Bolty does not get the start, his playing pecking order will move significantly lower.

No matter which one of Shamet or Matthews the Knicks ultimately chooses to keep, he will likely become an outsider at the end of the rotation. If Clarkson continues to struggle at the start of the new season, there may be a rotation order change. But considering that Brown may not be willing to break through the 10-man rotation in fierce competition, the possibility of these two players getting a chance to play early in the season is slim.

Who will win the final seat?

As mentioned earlier, the Knicks currently have a roster spot that could be used to sign one of the three veterans in training camp. Brogdon, Shamet and Matthews are currently competing for this seat, but as far as I know, the team management's initial intention is to retain two of them. To achieve this goal, the Knicks must initiate a trade operation.

I've reported and discussed the news that the Knicks are touting Dadier -- a rookie who struggled in his first two preseason games -- several times. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the Knicks needed a first-round pick to send away a player from the bottom of last year’s roster.. But is management willing to pay such a price? There are still variables, and it ultimately depends on how determined this championship-challenged team is to retain a veteran who may have few opportunities to play.

If the Knicks are determined to retain two of Brogdon, Shamet and Matthews, my bet will be on Brogdon and Shamet - although Matthews' recent performance may be making Shamet anxious. Brogdon's positioning is clear. Shamet and Matthews are both wing shooters with NBA experience, but they are both behind McBride, Clarkson and Hart in the draft. Matthews' career three-point shooting percentage is 38.2%, and he made 4 of 8 shots in 23 minutes in the preseason; Shamet's career three-point shooting percentage is 38.5%, and he made 1 of 4 shots in 25 minutes. On the defensive end, Shamet is even better. He was with the team in the Eastern Conference Finals last season and has a record of key appearances. He has already gotten along well with the core lineup and management.

Although we cannot get a glimpse of the behind-the-scenes competition, based on similar technical characteristics and equal playing time, Shamet and Matthews are obviously engaged in healthy competition, trying to prove to the management that it is worth adjusting the lineup to retain one more veteran.

If the Knicks decision-makers finally decide to retain the two veterans, then what are the trade objects and specific plans—do they need to be coupled with draft picks? Is the move worth it? ——It will still be the core plot that I continue to pay attention to in this preseason.