It was a surprise that the Mavericks won the No. 1 pick? The Cavaliers won three No. 1 picks in four years.

On May 20, in the history of the NBA draft, the ownership of the No. 1 pick can often change the fate of a team. On May 19, 2025, the news that the Dallas Mavericks accidentally drew the No. 1 pick ignited the basketball circle - this team that had just reached the Western Conference Finals created the most magical draw counterattack in the past decade with a probability of 1.7%. But when it comes to draft metaphysics, the "epic luck" of the Cleveland Cavaliers winning the No. 1 pick in four years from 2011 to 2014 is still an unsolved mystery in the league.

**The Mavericks' Lucky Critical Strike**

When League Vice President Mark Tatum slowly unfolded the envelope with the Mavericks' logo, the broadcast footage captured the instantly solidified expression of General Manager Harrison. The team led by Doncic and Irving has won 53 wins and 29 losses this season, and was predicted by ESPN to have a 1.7% chance of winning the No. 1 pick before the draft draw. Nick Harrison, president of basketball operations, admitted in an interview: "We originally planned to use the last draw of the first round to supplement the rotation depth, but now the entire team building strategy needs to be re-evaluated." According to Sina Sports, the Mavericks basketball data analysis department has simulated 300 draws, and the number one pick has only appeared 5 times.

This counterattack is easily reminiscent of the draw myths of the Bulls in 2008 (1.7% probability) and the Cavaliers in 2014 (1.7% probability). But the special thing about Dallas is that the first round pick in their hands comes from the transaction protection clause with the Knicks in 2023. When Porzingis was given away that year, the Mavericks set up the precise clause of "when the Knicks enter the playoffs in 2025, they will become the No. 1 pick protection." This insurance mechanism, which is regarded by the industry as "almost impossible to trigger", eventually took effect unexpectedly after the Knicks were eliminated in the first round.

**The metaphysical dynasty of the Cavaliers**

Compared to the accidental luck of the Mavericks, the Knights' draft fortunes from 2011 to 2014 can be called "system bugs". In 2011, the Cavaliers drew Irving with a 2.8% probability, won Bennett again with a 15.6% probability, and in 2014, they won the championship with a 1.7% probability, and chose Wiggins three times. According to the US media "Bleacher Report", the theoretical probability of these three consecutive top scorers is only 0.0067%, which is equivalent to the probability of 6 points being thrown 11 times in a row.

What is more intriguing is the "cursed coincidence": the No. 1 pick in 2011 came from the Clippers (traded by Byron Davis), the Lakers (traded by Mo Williams) in 2013, and the Heat in 2014 (LeBron signed first and then traded). These three teams that generously gave away the No. 1 pick are all former bosses who James has played for in his career. After the draw of lottery in 2014, Chris Grant, then general manager of the Cavaliers, admitted frankly: "When President Stern read Cleveland, I was wondering if I heard it wrong. "

** Butterfly effect of draft rules**

Behind these two legends is the history of the evolution of the NBA's continuously improved draft system. After the Cavaliers won the No. 1 pick three times in 2014, the league urgently revised the lottery rules in 2015: the winning rate of the team with the last pick's probability of the No. 1 pick from 25% to 14%, and implemented the "decreasing probability of the No. 1 pick from the team for three consecutive years" clause. After the Mavericks won this lottery, several team management has revealed to ESPN that it will propose to add a "probability of the No. 1 pick in the playoffs team to win the zero" clause in the next labor-management agreement negotiations.

Basketball economist Hollinger pointed out through The Athletic that the theoretical probability of a team in the playoffs draw for the No. 1 pick under the current system should be 2.3%, but the actual frequency is as high as 4.1%: "This may be the survival strategy of small-scale teams - they prefer to trade first-round picks to strong teams, and these picks often come with strict protection clauses, just like the Mavericks' stroke this time. "

**The cold data behind metaphysics**

When fans were hotly discussing "Whether the Cavaliers boss Gilbert's private plane carries the lucky charm", the StatMuse database shows that the proportion of all No. 1 picks with a probability of less than 5% in the past 20 years was only 33%. Although Irving helped the Cavaliers win the championship in 2011, Bennett became the most popular pick in history in 2013, and Wiggins was also traded to the Timberwolves in 2014. In contrast, the Mavericks, the No. 1 pick Mark Aguile, who was selected in 1981, later became a hero to win the championship in 1988, and Sam Perkins, who was selected in 1996, even assisted Nowitzki to reach the 2006 finals.

The current NBA president Adam Xiao Hua's speech after the 2025 draft lottery ceremony was meaningful: "Luck is the most charming part of competitive sports, but the real winners are always those teams who are fully prepared. " This sentence may reveal the ultimate truth of draft metaphysics - when the Dallas data analysis team was still simulating various probabilistic scenarios 72 hours before the draw, Cleveland's scouting department split into two factions due to Bennett's physical test data controversy. The God of Basketball is always favored by the wise man who transforms accident into necessity.