Sunday 016 Serie A [Roma VS Verona] Data Analysis Wang "Hong Xiaoyu" Professional evaluation: Little mice can eat elephants! 20=20000

Roma 2-0 Verona

Core analysis

1. Comparison of league situation and fighting intention

Roma: ranked 4th, with 9 points (4 games 3 wins 0 draws 1 loss), scored 3 goals and conceded 1 goal, only 1 point from the Champions League zone, and had a strong home record

Verona: ranked 15th, with 3 points (4 games 0 wins 3 draws 1 loss), scored 2 goals and conceded 6 goals, and was only 1 point from the relegation zone, and had a weak away record

Fighting intention assessment: Roma is qualified to compete for the Champions League at home; Verona's pressure to relegate away is also huge, and the home team is strategically encouraging

2. Comparison of home and away performance and status

vs. Roma (Home) Verona (Away) Advantage Party has recorded 7 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss in the last 10 games, 1 win, 3 draws, 6 losses in the last 10 games, Roma's offensive efficiency, averaging 1.8 goals at home, averaged 0.7 goals at home, and Roma's defensive performance in the lower reaches of the league, averaged 0.9 goals at home, averaged 1.6 goals at home, and Roma's downstream of the league, averaged 1.6 goals at home, and Roma's downstream of the league, has only conceded 1 goal in the last 4 games in the last 5 games, and has a solid defense in the last 5 games, 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses. It has weak offense, Roma's ball control ability, and 55% at home, and the 8th highest away ball control rate in the league, which is lower than the average season Roma

3. Historical confrontations and psychological advantages

Nearly 29 In the last encounter, Roma won 23 and 6 draws, and remained unbeaten against Verona at home

Latest encounter (April 2025): Roma 1-0 Verona

Verona has 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses in the last 5 away games against Roma, with a clear away disadvantage

Psychological advantage: Roma has formed absolute suppression against Verona at home

4. Tactical characteristics and style collide

Roman tactics: 4-3-3 formation, focusing on ball control + Breakthrough on the wing

Midfielder Dybala organizes dispatch, controls the rhythm of the game, and controls the game rhythm, and provides width and cross threats.

More active at home: strengthen high-pressing, increase offensive level

Verona tactics: 3-4-3/5-4-1 formation, focusing on defensive counterattack + Breakthrough on the wing

intensive defense in the midfield, compressing space, reducing opponent's offensive opportunities

winger Colognebo is very fast and is the core of counterattack

more conservative away game: shrink the defense line, reduce ball control, focus on defense and counterattack

tactical collision: Roma's ball control style and breakthrough on the wing just restrain Verona's dense defense in the middle; Verona's away tactics are conservative, and it is difficult to play the offensive characteristics

5. Core players and injuries affect

Roma core:

Dybala (No. 10): midfield commander, expected to return in this game, strong organization and dispatch ability

Lukaku (No. 9): forward core, strong body, and an offensive fulcrum

Christant: midfield interception and dispatch, offensive and defensive conversion hub

Verona core:

Sut Zeldar: midfield core, averaged 2.3 key passes per game, injured and missed

Cologne: good breakthrough on the wing, very fast speed, breakthrough success rate 65%

Pesina: midfield dispatch, offensive organization core

Injury:

Roma: Dybala, Pele (It is expected to return in this game); Wesley and Hermoso have recovered

Verona: Midfielder Sutzeldal, main defender Valentini, forward Mosquera and other major players have suffered injuries

Impact assessment: Verona's injury is more serious, and the core lineup is not in order

6. Gambling data and professional forecast

Asian handicap: Roma gives half one (-0.75 goals), moderate water level, the market is optimistic about the home team

European losses data: Roma wins 1.90-2.10, draws 3.40-3.60, Verona wins 4.00-4.20

Professional consensus: Most analytical institutions predict that Roma wins 2-0 or 1-0, and the winning rate is generally **60%-70%** The total goal expectation between

: 1-2, the total number of goals scored in the last three encounters between the two teams are ≤3,

Conclusion

Comprehensive analysis shows that Roma will defeat Verona 2-0 at home. The main basis is as follows:

The gap in performance and strength in the league: Roma ranks 4th, with an overall advantage in offense and defense data; Verona ranks 15th, with weak offense and obvious defensive loopholes

Home advantage and historical confrontation: Roma has been unbeaten at home against Verona in the last 29 games (23 wins and 6 draws), with a clear psychological advantage; Verona's away performance is weak, with only 1 win in the last 10 away games

Difference in the impact of injury: Verona's main players are absent (Zeldar, Valentini, etc.), seriously weakening combat effectiveness; Roma has relatively mild injuries, and its core lineup is complete

Tactical style restraint: Roma's ball-handling style and breakthrough on the wing are exactly targeting Verona's weakness of dense defense in the middle; Verona's away tactics are conservative, and it is difficult to play its offensive characteristics

Gambling data are highly consistent: both Asian handicap and European losses data show that the market is optimistic about Roma, and professional predictions generally tend to win the home team

The game will present a pattern of Roma leading ball control and Verona's defensive counterattack. Roma is expected to take advantage of home court and wide break, with Dybala (return debut) and Lukaku each scoring a goal to win. Verona was troubled by injuries and away disadvantage, and it was difficult for him to organize an effective offense and eventually lost 0-2.

Score prediction: Rome 2-0 Verona