European play-off analysis: Italy has been drawn, can Isak lead Sweden to a comeback?

The draw for the European play-offs of the 2026 World Cup has ended. Italy, which is participating in the World Cup preliminaries play-offs for the third consecutive time, has drawn a top draw. Not only has it avoided Sweden and North Macedonia, the bitter hosts of the previous two play-offs, but it has also drawn the relatively weak Northern Ireland of the other two opponents. If Italy can successfully defeat Northern Ireland, then they will compete with the winner between Wales and Bosnia and Herzegovina for a ticket to the World Cup finals. In addition to Italy, another eye-catching team in the European play-offs is the Swedish team, which has two top scorers in Isaac and Dzekeresh. They will face Ukraine in the first round. The winner will compete with the winner between Poland and Albania for a ticket to the World Cup finals.

A total of 16 teams participate in the World Cup European play-offs, 12 of which are the second-place teams in each group stage. These 12 teams are divided into 3 tiers based on the latest world rankings (numbers in brackets), of which the first tier is Italy (12) , Denmark (21), Turkey (25) and Ukraine (28). The second-tier teams are Poland (31), Wales (32), the Czech Republic (44) and Slovakia (45). The third-tier teams are Ireland (59), Albania (63), Bosnia and Herzegovina (71) and Kosovo (80). In addition, the four teams of Romania (47), Sweden (43), North Macedonia (65) and Northern Ireland (69), as the top teams in the UEFA Nations League group in the 24-25 season, were also able to participate in the play-offs and were listed as the fourth-tier teams.

According to the rules of the play-offs, these 16 teams will be divided into 4 divisions by drawing lots. The four teams in each division will compete in two single-round semi-finals and a single-round final. The semi-final matches are determined according to the division. The first-tier team will play at home against the fourth-tier team, and the second-tier team will play at home against the third-tier team. The home court of the final will be determined by drawing lots. The semi-finals will be held on March 26, 2026, and the final will be on March 31. The Italian team and the Swedish team are the two teams that attract the most attention from fans among the 16 teams participating in the play-offs. Therefore, retired Italian star Materazzi and Swedish star Dachlin were also invited to serve as draw guests.

After the draw, Italy, Wales, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Northern Ireland entered Zone A. The semi-finals will be Italy VS Northern Ireland and Wales VS Bosnia and Herzegovina. This grouping is undoubtedly a good draw for Italy, but it also means that only one team from Northern Ireland and Wales can enter the World Cup finals. The dream of the four British teams to enter the World Cup together has been shattered in advance. Among the teams in the fourth tier, Sweden eliminated Italy in the European play-offs of the 2018 World Cup preliminaries, and North Macedonia eliminated the Italian team in the European play-offs of the 2022 World Cup preliminaries. Both teams are the victims that Italy is unwilling to encounter. Romania is ranked 47th in the world, which is significantly higher than Northern Ireland's 69th. Therefore, Italy's ability to draw Northern Ireland among the four teams is definitely considered a top draw.

Since 2010, the Italian team has played against Northern Ireland 4 times, with a record of 2 wins and 2 draws and remains unbeaten, including 3-0 at home and 0-0 away in the 2011 European Cup qualifiers, and 2-0 at home and 0-0 away in the 2022 World Cup European qualifiers. In this play-off semi-final, Italy is playing at home again. Although judging from the historical record and strength comparison, Italy's victory over Northern Ireland should not be a problem, but considering Italy's situation against North Macedonia in the last play-off, fans may wish to keep an eye on it. If Italy can get past Northern Ireland, their opponent will be the winner between Wales and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Wales is very likely to win. In the end, it is likely that Italy and Wales will compete for tickets to the World Cup finals. Be cautiously optimistic about Italy.

Ukraine, Poland, Albania and Sweden have entered Zone B. The semi-finals will be Ukraine VS Sweden and Poland VS Albania. Ukraine, Poland and Sweden all have many players playing in the five major leagues, and Sweden has gathered a Premier League striker trident composed of Isaac, Dzekeresh and Elanga. Ukraine and Sweden met in the 1/8 finals of the 2021 European Cup. In the end, Ukraine narrowly defeated its opponent 2-1 in overtime. This game will also be Sweden's revenge. Although the total value of the Swedish team's players is significantly higher than that of Ukraine, considering their poor performance in the world preliminaries, they may not be able to pass Ukraine's level.

As for Poland and Albania, the two Eastern European teams compete frequently. In the last 6 encounters, Poland has the upper hand with 5 wins and 1 loss. Albania's only victory was a 2-0 victory over Poland at home in the 2023 European Cup qualifiers, but Poland also defeated its opponent 1-0 at home. It is more optimistic that Lewandowski can lead Poland through. This division is the most difficult to predict, with Ukraine, Sweden and Poland all likely to qualify for the World Cup.

Türkiye, Slovakia, Kosovo and Romania have entered Zone C. The semi-finals will be Türkiye VS Romania and Slovakia VS Kosovo. Turkey is the second-strongest team in terms of comprehensive strength among all the teams participating in the play-offs, second only to Italy. Even Italy may not be able to win Turkey. Turkey not only has young talents like Yildiz, Guler and Zhan Uzun, but also midfield masters like Calhanoglu. That is, the defense is slightly worse. They only lost one game to Spain in the group stage. Maybe they can advance directly if they change the group. Compared with Türkiye, Romanian football, which is currently at a trough, obviously does not have any good players. This semi-final can be said to be a clear distinction between strong and weak.

Slovakia and Kosovo have not played against each other before, but Slovakia was able to defeat the German team in the group stage, and Kosovo was able to beat the Swedish team home and away. The strength of both teams cannot be underestimated.. Although the world rankings of the two teams are very different, they both qualified for the play-offs as second in the group. The outcome is really unpredictable. Türkiye is the team with the best performance in the group stage and the strongest overall strength among all the teams in this division, and is also the team with the most hope of qualifying for the World Cup finals.

Denmark, the Czech Republic, Ireland and North Macedonia have entered Zone D. The semi-finals will be Denmark VS North Macedonia and the Czech Republic VS Ireland. Denmark is the most miserable of all the teams participating in the play-offs, because they are the only team that fell from first place to second place in the group in the last round of the group stage, giving away the World Cup finals tickets they had already held. Denmark and North Macedonia rarely play against each other. Judging from the strength of the two teams, Denmark has a high probability of winning. There is not much difference in strength between the Czech and Irish teams, and the outcome of this game is also 50-50. Overall, Denmark has the strongest overall strength in this group and is most likely to become the final winner.