3 years ago Isaac + Nunes Liverpool chose 1 in 2, and Uncle Slag chose Nunes

Ian Graham is the director of data research at Liverpool Club from 2012 to 2023, using data analysis to assist in the formulation of transfer policies. He is currently the CEO of sports consulting firm Ludonautics.

He was interviewed by the Financial Times a few days ago. Today we excerpt some topics related to Liverpool and the Premier League to share with you. The following are the original words of Graham.

1. Liverpool once chose one of Nunes and Isaac. Uncle Slag chose Nunes

Jurgen (Klopp) and brought great success to the club. Therefore, it is understandable that the club chooses this direction (the coach has a greater say in signings). I would love to talk about how my colleagues convinced Jurgen in 2017 that Salah was a player worth buying, not Julie Brant. In 2022, he signed Nunez (Financial Times note: transfer fee of 70 million pounds plus floating clauses), not Isaac (Editor's note: On August 26, 2022, Isaac transferred from Real Sociedad to Newcastle, with a transfer fee of 70 million euros, which is about 60 million pounds).

If the top young centers in Europe are used as standard, these two players can be ranked in the top two - or two or three, but Haaland is about to transfer to Manchester City at the time and is beyond our budget. Jurgen prefers Nunez.

If I say, "It's so bad that Jurgen has his own choice", I'll be stingy, because Jurgen has been persuaded to make different choices in the past. And we still signed good players – taking Nunez as an example, he is one of the best young forwards in Europe.

2. Connater's high "no ball data" score is why Liverpool signed him

The most difficult position to analyze with data is the central defender, and they are the players who are the least involved in ball control. Connert (transfer from Leipzig to Liverpool in 2021) has therefore ratings far higher in our tracking model (no ball data) than the event model (with ball data). Why? Because Leipzig plays "suicide" football, he faces the situation where one person defends the entire second half many times in every game. Therefore, the event model would say, “There are too many dangers in front of Conat.” And the tracking model can see, “He is actually the only defensive player in that dangerous area.”

This gives us a deeper understanding of what is important and who is outstanding. You can ask: "Did this player always meet what we think is high value options?" Event data cannot see other options. Tracking data reveals all the details and points out: "This is the real situation before the players."

3. Data-dominated in the Premier League is still not common, but other leagues are worse

Although I complain about the slow pace of change in the Premier League, the situation is already quite good compared to the rest of the world. Spain is particularly conservative and traditional. The current Premier League club is in the process of this change. Manchester United has not completed this transition yet. Chelsea does not need to take this approach and is now facing difficulties caused by change. When I joined Liverpool, it was true that only Liverpool was promoting this model. Arsenal has also made similar attempts behind the scenes, but has not had a significant impact yet.

In Italy and Spain, the traditional coach-led tactical system is still mainstream, and these teams still perform well in the European continent: everything revolves around tactics, which is the key to determining the outcome of the game.

The number of coaches that have an impact in this way is limited. This method puts all the eggs in one basket, i.e. the coach’s basket. This is similar to the number of transfer failures. You can do the same with the coach. You could say, “We’re going to hire the next Guardiola,” but what’s the chance of success?

If the coach leads means that the coach decides to sign ups, the chances of success are also limited. The coach has two games to coach a week and he doesn't have time to sign. We have discussed that Tenghach's signings at Manchester United are almost all Dutch league players because that is the player he is familiar with. They have introduced good players, but they are not suitable for the Premier League and Manchester United.

4. The head coach's leading transfer is dying. Now it is more focused on group wisdom. Club owners always like to intervene and make their own decisions. They always think: "If I can't sign my favorite player and have to listen to the opinions of the data table, then what is the point of being the boss of this club?" I think in transfer decisions, head coach as the leader, and even becoming a dictator is a unique phenomenon of the English team, and this phenomenon is dying. Now it is more focused on group wisdom.