0-2 Desperate situation! The Knight of the Remnant Formation relies on Mitchell s single core to save the master? The Pacer s three-point rain may extinguish the last hope

1. Series review and the current situation

The timer of the Cleveland Speed ​​Loan Center Arena was frozen at 4.2 seconds. The 20,000 spectators in the game seemed to be pressed to mute the key - Halliburton used an 11-meter ultra-long three-pointer to complete the final victory, nailing the Cavaliers to the NBA playoffs shameful pillar: this is the first time in the past 25 years that the regular season division was lagging behind 0-2 at home. What's even more cruel is that when Mitchell scored the ninth highest 48 points in the playoff history, his true plus-negative value was -15, which hurts the team's nerves more than losing. The shadow of injury is covering the Cavaliers. The three main players Garland (sprayed left toe), Mobley (sprayed left ankle), and Hunter (sprayed right thumb) all missed G2 due to injuries, among which Garland and Mobley have been confirmed to miss G3. The problem of insufficient rotation height of the inside line has been infinitely magnified. Currently, only Allen and Wade are available, while the Pacers G2 scored 50 points in the penalty area, including 26 points in the fourth quarter. The advantage of the Pacers is the outbreak of firepower on the outside and team basketball. G1 made 19 of 36 three-pointers, with a shooting percentage of 52.8%, the third highest in a single game so far in the 22-year playoffs; although G2 has fallen, it still maintains a shooting percentage of 39%. Halliburton and Siakam averaged 36.7 points and 10.2 assists per game, completely tearing the Cavaliers' joint defense system.

2. The key points for the Cavaliers G3's victory

1. Mitchell's super-god endurance and helper support

Mitchell G2's performance is the sixth time in history. The single-game usage rate of the playoffs exceeds 50% and takes more than 20 shots, which means that when he is on the court, the Cavaliers basically end with his shots, mistakes or free throws in every round. His physical overdrawn in the last quarter caused him to make three consecutive key mistakes, which directly ruined the game. If you want to avoid repeating the same mistakes, you must activate shooters such as Merrill and Okoro. Merrill scored three three-pointers in a single game against the Heat in the first round, and Okoro's three-point shooting percentage in the regular season this season has increased to 38.7%. If the two can provide fire support from the outside, it will greatly reduce Mitchell's pressure.

Morbry's return possibility becomes X factor. Although he has not conducted confrontational training, once he returns, his DPOY-level defensive ability will improve the efficiency of inside basket protection. This season's regular season, Mobry averaged 1.6 blocks per game and a frame protection efficiency value of +5.7, which can effectively limit the Pacers' breakthroughs.

2. Adjustment of defensive strategy

Outside blockade is the key. The Pacers ranked second in the league in the regular season with a three-point shooting percentage of 36.8%. Halliburton and Siakam's pick-and-roll screen quality is extremely high, and the Cavaliers need to use the "defense exchange + pinch" strategy to limit their shots. For details, please refer to the success story in the first round against the Heat: When Halliburton held the ball, Allen delayed the ball, and Mitchell and Okoro quickly double-teamed, forcing the Pacers to get out of the ball to the weak side, and then blocked the three-point line through a quick rotation.

control errors are equally important. The Cavaliers made five consecutive mistakes in the final quarter of G2, which directly led to the Pacers' climax of 14-0. Mitchell needs to reduce singles with the ball and make more use of passes after pick-and-roll. At the same time, Merrill and Ocorro need to improve the decision-making stability in key rounds.

3. Home momentum and psychological game

The Cavaliers' home winning rate in the regular season was as high as 79.7% (64 wins and 18 losses), and swept the Heat 4-0 in the first round of the playoffs, averaging 30.5 points per game, setting a record for the largest score difference in history. Cleveland's home atmosphere is always known for its "devil's home court", and the cheers of fans can often inspire players' fighting spirit. The coaching staff can draw on the experience of the 2016 finals, ignite the atmosphere on the scene through pre-match video playback, passionate speeches from players, and psychologically suppress young Pacers players.

3. The Pacers' tactical layout of another game

1. Continuing the outside firepower + fast attack rhythm

Pacers' three-point tactics have proved its power. Turner and Siakam shot 37.5% and 43.5% of the three-point shooting percentages in the playoffs this season, respectively, and can use high-level cover to pull up the inside and create a breakthrough and pass the ball for Halliburton. In terms of conversion and offense, in response to the Cavaliers' residual rotation speed disadvantage, the Pacers can launch a quick counterattack through steals and blocks. The Cavaliers who average 14 turnovers per game will become the best prey.

2. Inside suppression and defensive deterrence

Turner's rim protection dominance is the Pacers' defensive cornerstone. He averaged 2.6 blocks per game in the playoffs this season, and G2 contributed 5 blocks, with a plus-minus value of +15 highest in the game. Faced with the Cavaliers' breakthrough, Turner needs to continue to guard the basket and form a joint defense system with Siakam. The strategy of double-teaming Mitchell is also effective. In the end of the G2 quarter, it was through double-teaming that Mitchell forced to make consecutive mistakes and finally completed the reversal.

3. Psychological pressure and detailed control

The competition for key rebounds is the Pacers' magic weapon to win. In the final quarter of G2, they scored 12 points through a second offense, of which Turner grabbed 4 frontcourt rebounds. The attrition strategy targets the weakness of the Cavaliers' only 7-player rotation. The Pacers can increase the defensive intensity, forcing the Cavaliers' main players to get into foul trouble too early.

4. Data-driven victory and loss forecast

US media "BR" still gives the Cavaliers a 74.4% chance of promotion, but it needs to win at least two away games. This prediction is based on the depth of the Cavaliers' lineup and the quality of the stars, but the Pacers' hidden dangers are also obvious: their three-point shooting percentage in the bottom corner has been only 28.3% so far in the playoffs, a 13 percentage point drop from the regular season. If you fall into positional warfare, the problem of insufficient depth may be exposed.

X factor is the comeback of Garland or Mobri. Garland's three-point shooting percentage in the regular season this season is 41.2%. If he returns, he can improve the Cavaliers' positional combat skills; Mobley's defense can effectively limit the Pacers' inside scores.. Pacers need to make plans, such as using a defense switch strategy for Garland's pick-and-roll, while Mobley consumes his physical fitness through high-level support.

Summary:

This round of series has entered a white-hot stage. All suspense will be revealed in G3 whether the Cavaliers can use their home advantage to sound the counterattack horn and whether the Pacers can continue their hot touch and win another game. Although historical data is not good for the Cavaliers, the charm of basketball lies in its unpredictability. When Mitchell led the remnants to fight back and when Halliburton led the team to pursue the victory, this Eastern Conference semi-finals were destined to be one of the most classic matchups of the season. Fans, are you ready for this basketball feast?