Today, Saturday, August 9, 002, Kawasaki Forward VS Fukuoka Hornets

The following are the event analysis and predictions between Kawasaki Frontale and Avispa Fukuoka. Combined with the team's status, historical confrontation, injury status and tactical characteristics:

1. Team status and recent performance

1. Kawasaki Frontale (home court)

League ranking: 7th place (10 wins, 8 draws and 6 losses in 24 games, 38 points).

Offensive data: Average 1.58 goals per game (38 goals in the league), but the efficiency has declined recently, and averaging only 1.2 goals per game in the last five games.

Home advantage: 5 wins and 1 draw in the last 6 home games, including a winning streak of Kashima Antlers (2-1) and Albirex Niigata (3-1); 2 goals per game, with a possession rate of 58%.

Last round loss: Losing 1-2 to Osaka Gamba away, exposing defensive loopholes (conceded goals in the last 5 league games).

2. Fukuoka Hornets (away game)

League ranking: 11th place (8 wins, 8 draws, and 8 losses in 24 games, 32 points).

Defensive toughness: Average away games have conceded only 1.0 goals, conceded only 4 goals in the last 6 rounds, with a zero-blocking rate of 33%.

Short offense: Average of 0.88 goals per game in the league (21 goals in total), an unbeaten rate of 90% in the last 10 games (4 wins, 5 draws and 1 loss), but most draws are tied and the goal efficiency is low.

Last round draw: Drawing Urawa Red Diamonds 0-0 away, continuing the three consecutive draws.

2. Historical confrontation and psychological advantages

Kawasaki's crushing lead: in the last 10 confrontations, Kawasaki has 8 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss; has won all the last 5 games and has a net victory of 2 goals per game.

First leg of this season: Kawasaki reversed Fukuoka 2-1 away (62% possession rate, 14 shots dominant).

Home Suppression: Kawasaki won all against Fukuoka in the last five home games, the most recent one was 3-1 in December 2024.

III. Injuries and key players

1. Kawasaki forward

Injury situation: Shintaro of the Cheya (backer), Oshima Yoshita (midfielder), Erison (forward), and Lee Qin-hyung (goalkeeper) are absent.

Key players: Yu Kobayashi (goal scored in the last round), Marsinho (4 goals).

2. Fukuoka Hornets

Injury situation: Oda Yishi (back) and Zahdi (forward) have been injured for a long time.

Key players: Wellington (forward), Mito Tomoya Ki (midfielder, 4 goals).

4. Tactics and key confrontations

Kawasaki Tactics: Focusing on 4-2-3-1 formation, relying on crosses from the wing (16.3 per game) and set pieces (scoring 30%), but the front ending ability declined. The air defense capability after the defense line is reorganized has decreased (the success rate of 65% for the top is scrambled).

Fukuoka responds: Use a 5-4-1 defensive counterattack, relying on a straight pass in the middle (success rate of 58%) and a winger speed breakthrough. It is necessary to guard against Kawasaki's set pieces, and at the same time, use the opponent's defense line to catch up with the weak point of slow pursuit (average 1.7 seconds/time).

Sporty energy critical point: Kawasaki fights in multiple lines, and the running efficiency may drop by 12% after 70 minutes; if Fukuoka withstands the high pressure in the first 60 minutes, it is expected to expand the counterattack space.

5. Data and Institutional Views

Winning and Loss Trends: Mainstream institutions gave Kawasaki's main victory at the initial loss of 1.66 (win rate 52.6%), and then stabilized to 1.90, supporting the home team's small victory.

Goal expectations

Large and small goals: 2.25 goals, small ball probability is 57% (Fukuoka's away offense is weak + Kawasaki's efficiency declines).

Half-game: Kawasaki scored 58% in the first half, but he only led the first half in the last five games.

6. Score prediction

tendency: Kawasaki striker's minor victory

Comprehensive home court advantage, historical suppression and Fukuoka's offense are weak, Kawasaki is expected to win 1-0 or 2-0.

Potential variables: If Fukuoka sticks to the half-time without conceding a goal (0-0 in the last three rounds), he may tie or make a sneak attack (1-1).

Conclusion: Kawasaki has the advantage of home momentum and confrontation suppression, but the efficiency of the front line restricts the possibility of a big victory; Fukuoka needs to rely on defensive resilience to fight for the draw, but the offensive shortcomings are difficult to break the deadlock. Recommended: Kawasaki striker wins (1-0/2-0).