Congratulations to Barcelona for winning the La Liga championship, in-depth analysis of Manchester United s strategic layout of acquiring Chelsea s two goals
3:16pm, 16 May 2025Football
Regarding the handicap setting of Manchester United's 2 goals in the Premier League against Manchester United on Friday, combined with the pre-match background and institutional intention analysis, the following key factors may exist:
1. The contradiction between fundamentals and handicap logic
Chelsea's inflated handicap rationality is doubtful According to pre-match analysis, Chelsea's recent state is not stable (after losing to Newcastle), and needs to prepare for the subsequent European League finals. The initial agency opened 1.5 goals and even gave 2 goals directly, but the fundamental support was insufficient. For example: Manchester United's strong teams are in a tough position: Manchester United has been upset against strong teams (such as Manchester City and Liverpool) many times this season. Head coach Amorin emphasized that the players' mentality is more active in key battles. Chelsea's defensive loopholes are high. Chelsea's league conceded a high number of goals (conceding 13 goals in the last 10 games), while Manchester United's recent counterattack efficiency has improved (such as the counterattack threat of Garnacho and B Fee)
The institutions induce suspicion of the upper set of the initial set to 2 goals, far exceeding the gap in strength between the two sides (most of the historical confrontations are within one goal). It may be that by amplifying Chelsea's "home court advantage" to attract funds to bet on the upper set. However, Manchester United is not a weak team. The compensation rate of 2 goals transferred (such as the negative odds of 1.64 for the sports lottery) shows the agency's defense against the next set
2. The potential impact of fighting intention and schedule
Manchester United's Europa League final priority Manchester United must participate in the Europa League final 5 days later. This game may be mainly based on "tactical exercises" to avoid injury to the main force. But Amorin clearly stated that he would attach importance to strong dialogues, as a state adjustment before the finals, so his actual fighting spirit may not be sluggish.
Chelsea's point pressure Chelsea needs to compete for the top five in the league to ensure the qualification of the European Cup, but the institution overestimates its ability to win. Recent data shows that Chelsea's ball possession rate is high when facing defensive counterattack teams (such as Newcastle and Tottenham), but its conversion efficiency is insufficient
3. Handicap adjustment and market sentiment manipulation
The up-and-down set has caused some Chelsea institutions to rise from 1.5 goals to 2 goals, creating the illusion of "stable win" with low water, but in fact, Manchester United's winning conditions for two goals are loose (Manchester United loses 1 goal or draws all wins), and the deep set may cover up Manchester United's defensive counterattack threat
The possibility of unpopular harvesting of unpopular goals The low payout rate (1.64) and European odds (such as William Hill's away win odds are higher than the sports lottery) show that institutions are vigilant against unpopular results. Historical cases show that Manchester United has an upset draw or a small loss to the strong team in similar deep sets (such as stoppage reversal against Manchester City)
Conclusion: The "psychological game" behind the deep sets
Manchester United's handicap with two goals is more likely to be the institution taking advantage of the market's inertia optimism about Chelsea, induced funds through deep sets, and at the same time covering up Manchester United's tactical targeting (such as shrinking defense + counterattack). Combined with Manchester United's recent performance against strong teams and Chelsea's stability issues, deep sets may be a strategy for institutions to balance betting risks, rather than a reflection of the real strength gap. It is recommended to carefully consider the extreme threshold of "letting 2 goals" and focus on the possibility of unbeaten by Manchester United
The data analysis of Manchester United's game ends here. Next, let's do mine-sweeping in today's game, and let's talk about the changes on the spot.
Friday 001 Australian Premier League: Western Union vs Melbourne City
Direction: Let the winner win, Western Union's offense is very strong, Melbourne City's offense is mediocre offense and defense. It seems to be supporting Melbourne City, but in fact it is hindering the Western Union's intention to go.
Score: 2-0 2-1 3-1 3-1 total number: 2-3
Friday 013 Premier League: Chelsea vs. Manchester United
Direction: Let the Loss Be optimistic about Chelsea's small win with one goal
Score: 1-0 2-1 3-2
Total number: 1-3
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